Regional climate simulations at the convection-permitting scale (< 4 km) have the potential to improve seasonal forecasts, especially where complex topography hinders global models. Due to high computational costs, tests using state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts have not been performed yet. In this one-year case study, a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) multi-physics ensemble was used to downscale the SEAS5 ensemble forecast over the Horn of Africa. Reliability of precipitation prediction is improved, although the global model’s biases in temperature and precipitation are not reduced. Measurable added value against the global model is provided for intense precipitation statistics over the Ethiopian highlands.
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Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim
Environment & Energy
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